The Simple Rule Won Under Random Hazards
A two-action causal rule based on local nonlinearity decisively beat the corrected neural controller on fresh stochastic filtering rollouts.
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All postsUseful Offline, Harmful Online
A bounded mixture state predicted much of an oracle’s value offline, yet repeated learned control shifted its own inputs and failed until a limited, partial correction.
The Oracle Could Choose, but the Online Planner Could Not
Exact-grid action values exposed a large information gap, while causal self-rollout became inaccurate and prohibitively expensive once planning work was counted.
When Projection Choice Matters
An exact option-value model and scalar oracle experiments show when preserving a belief can reduce future loss—without yet producing a deployable controller.
We Gaussianized the Reference: Repairing Evaluation for Multimodal Filters
A full-density audit repaired grid semantics, boundary checks, and scalable reference inference—then showed which nonlinear-filter rankings survived.
Strict Online Variational Bayesian Filtering: What Survived The Stress Tests
A synthesis of strict online nonlinear filtering experiments: K2 FIVO bridge survived, while trajectories, couplings, flows, and predictive pressure exposed calibration failures.