The Simple Rule Won Under Random Hazards
A two-action causal rule based on local nonlinearity decisively beat the corrected neural controller on fresh stochastic filtering rollouts.
Ai-Research
Useful Offline, Harmful Online
A bounded mixture state predicted much of an oracle’s value offline, yet repeated learned control shifted its own inputs and failed until a limited, partial correction.
The Oracle Could Choose, but the Online Planner Could Not
Exact-grid action values exposed a large information gap, while causal self-rollout became inaccurate and prohibitively expensive once planning work was counted.
When Projection Choice Matters
An exact option-value model and scalar oracle experiments show when preserving a belief can reduce future loss—without yet producing a deployable controller.
We Gaussianized the Reference: Repairing Evaluation for Multimodal Filters
A full-density audit repaired grid semantics, boundary checks, and scalable reference inference—then showed which nonlinear-filter rankings survived.
Strict Online Variational Bayesian Filtering: What Survived The Stress Tests
A synthesis of strict online nonlinear filtering experiments: K2 FIVO bridge survived, while trajectories, couplings, flows, and predictive pressure exposed calibration failures.
Strict Nonlinear Filtering With Mixtures, Particles, And Flows
A research note on turning Kalman-filter intuition into reference-free nonlinear filters with mixture beliefs, FIVO diagnostics, and scalar flows.
Amortizing Quadrature Filters Without Losing Calibration
A strict mixture filter learned from deterministic Power-EP teachers improved some nonlinear alias cases, but exposed a hard alias-mass calibration tradeoff.
A Tour Of Learned And Reference-Free Bayesian Filters
A long-form guide to the Kalman, ELBO, distillation, IWAE, FIVO, ADF, and Power-EP filtering experiments in ml-examples.
Reference-Free Quadrature Filters For The Sine Benchmark
Deterministic quadrature ADF and Power-EP baselines showed that much of the nonlinear filtering gap was algorithmic, not just amortization.
When Mixtures Beat Local ELBO In Nonlinear Filtering
Small strict mixture filters with IWAE and FIVO-style objectives closed much of the nonlinear calibration gap while staying reference-free.
Repairing a Nonlinear Strict Filter Without Reference Targets
The nonlinear sine-observation benchmark exposed ELBO under-dispersion, then a joint ELBO, predictive-y, and masked-y objective partially repaired it.
Variational Filtering, Rebuilt From the Linear Case
A scalar linear-Gaussian benchmark made the VBF edge-factor implementation auditable before moving to nonlinear filtering.
Example Research Note
A minimal example post showing code, math, images, and front matter for mlbot.blog.